Madura United's Perfect Three-Match Start: The Distance Between 9 Points and 31 Remaining Games

Seven minutes after Nermin Haljeta had given PSIM Yogyakarta the lead at Gelora Bangkalan, Madura United responded. Jorge Mendonca equalised, Gali Freitas sealed a 2-1 win, and the scoreboard froze on a number the home fans could not have dreamed of in May. Three matches, three wins, seven goals scored, two conceded. A club that stood on the brink of relegation last season now leads the BRI Super League 2026/2027 alongside Persija Jakarta. But I do not look at the standings. I look at my notebook, where no expected goals figure has been written. The 2026/2026 season ended in humiliation for Madura United. Fifteenth in the table, a few points above the relegation zone, and a goal difference so poor that analysts called them a side surviving only because of fixture mercy. Jose Gomes took over, bringing a Portuguese football philosophy: ball control, positional rotation, and above all defensive discipline. He also brought a cluster of Portuguese-speaking imports, from Hugo Gomes, Jorge Mendonca to Gali Freitas. Results came faster than expected. On the opening day they beat Persijap Jepara 2-0 through set-piece precision. In the second match they beat PSS Sleman 3-1, an impressive scoreline even if no one could confirm they dominated the flow of play. In the third match they trailed PSIM before turning the game around. Three wins, three different scripts. President Achsanul Qosasi, instead of celebrating, delivered a mathematical statement: three straight wins can be called consistency, but it is not enough to measure a team's success. The league still had 31 games remaining. The first thing I noted after those three matches was the goalscorer list. No name repeated more than twice. Jorge Mendonca, Gali Freitas, Dimitar Mitkov – three different names on the scoresheet. That is a rare positive signal compared with last season, when Madura lived and died with one or two individuals. A team with multiple scoring sources is harder to contain. But that diversity does not tell the whole story. Two of the three wins came by a one-goal margin. Twice in three matches Madura conceded first. A team leading the table while constantly chasing the game can hardly be called dominant. It shows character, but it also shows fragility. Within the same squad there is a paradox named Joao Balotelli. The imported striker, whose name recalls the Italian celebrity on Indonesian soil, has gone nine consecutive competitive matches without a goal. The board's patience with him is an enigma. Are they waiting for an explosion that shows no evidence of coming, or are they locked into a contract too expensive to terminate? Meanwhile Dimitar Mitkov has earned the nickname goal machine, with goals coming from intelligent runs inside the box. The crowd may remember Mendonca's goal. I remember how Mitkov stretched the defence to create the space for that finish – the real decision was made three passes earlier. But the biggest issue is not one player. It is the tiny sample size. Three matches, 270 minutes, nine points – these numbers cannot separate a genuine revival from a random lucky streak. Madura's opponents have been Persijap Jepara, PSS Sleman and PSIM Yogyakarta. None belong to Indonesia's traditional elite or possess overwhelming squads. If a team has an easy early fixture list, a perfect result is explained by the fixtures themselves. I am not saying Madura do not deserve credit. I am saying we need more data before declaring they have changed. A test with three easy questions proves little about a student's ability. It only proves the student answered those first three questions correctly. This is where the 'explosion' framing bothers me. In a modern league where every pass can be measured by expected goals, every pressing sequence by PPDA, a team winning all matches while leaving no tactical numbers behind is odd. I can find their goals on YouTube, but I cannot tell where they press, how they circulate the ball before the final third, or how they maintain their defensive line. When the press room laughs at xG, I know I am reading the book they have not opened. With Madura, that book remains sealed. A number can lie, but a model tested across 10,000 matches has no reason to pretend. Madura's nine points have not yet been fed into any model. Standing next to Persija Jakarta at the top is an intriguing detail, but it can mislead. Persija are the capital club, with squad depth, media budget and a trophy-filled history. Madura are a coastal side, carrying the bull-racing identity of Laskar Sape Kerrab, operating on a far more modest financial model. Two teams with nine points after three rounds does not make them equal. It only means that, at this moment, both are doing their jobs well. Indonesian football history is full of teams that started like storms and ended in tears, and their common flaw was usually poor squad depth, no backup plan, and a belief that a fast start speaks for itself. Madura, with 31 games ahead, still have time to prove which category they belong to. Amid all those signals, president Achsanul Qosasi emerges as a rare figure in Southeast Asian football: a man deflating expectation bubbles around his own club. Instead of promising a title, he mentions the 31 remaining games. Instead of praising the coach, he talks about consistency. His language is the language of a manager who witnessed last season's collapse and does not want to repeat the mistake. There is a telling gap between how the president speaks and how the media reports. Bola.net calls it an explosion. Qosasi calls it a start. When the club's highest authority lowers expectations, that is not mere humility. It is a strategy to protect his squad from the complacency trap that has killed many Southeast Asian clubs after bright starts. But even the president's wisdom cannot hide the dark spots. Madura United have recruited foreigners almost entirely through Jose Gomes's Portuguese network. That creates cultural and linguistic cohesion, but also a dangerous dependency. If Gomes leaves, the whole system may collapse. On the bench, the squad lacks serious depth, and a 34-round calendar will soon expose the physical limits of overworked players. Indonesian football is currently shaken by governance storms, from the conflict-of-interest questions around PSSI chairman Erick Thohir to the condemnation of a Vietnamese player's violent conduct on the pitch. The story of a small club like Madura United may feel distant in such noise. Yet it is exactly what football needs: a purely sporting story told through results, not scandals. The only problem is that those results are not statistically large enough to become a prophecy. If the season is a marathon, Madura United have run fast first kilometres. But a marathon is decided in the final kilometres, not the opening ones. There is a view missed in this explosion narrative. Look closely: Madura United have conceded in two of three matches and needed a comeback to win the third. A truly dominant side would not be chasing the game at home against a mid-tier opponent like PSIM. The fighting spirit deserves praise, but defensive solidity remains a major question. And strangely, the patience shown to Joao Balotelli – an import goalless for nine matches – may be the thing that shapes the season. If he cannot score, every victory is built on sand. The media call this an explosive start. I call it a test with 31 games remaining. So the most important question is not whether Madura United can maintain their perfect start. The question is whether, after 31 remaining matches, they can stay safe when an imported striker still has not scored, when opponents have decoded Jose Gomes's system, and when the schedule turns brutal. Nine points are a foundation. But a house needs more than a foundation. Come back after round 10, when the bubble has either inflated or burst, and we will all know who Madura United really are. Because in football, history is not written by beginnings, but by what happens when everything starts to go against you.